Nigeria’s 2026 Economic Growth Outlook Downgraded as World Bank Warns of Rising Risks

By Micheal Chukwuebuka

The World Bank has downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth projection to an average of 4.1 percent in 2026, lower than its earlier forecast of 4.4 percent made in October 2025.

The bank also reduced its projection for 2027 to 4.2 percent, while 2028 growth is expected to reach 4.3 percent.

In its April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled “Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,” the global lender said Nigeria’s growth outlook is supported by more stable macroeconomic conditions and a gradual recovery in investment.

According to the report, the services sector, especially ICT, finance, and real estate, will remain the main driver of growth, while agriculture and industry are expected to grow more slowly due to structural challenges.

The bank projected that inflation in Nigeria could drop from 23 percent in 2025 to 14.9 percent in 2026, and further decline to 10.7 percent by 2028, largely due to policy tightening and improved supply conditions.

It added that rising oil prices may support government revenue but warned that global uncertainty, security concerns, commodity price volatility, and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections could weaken business confidence.

Across sub-Saharan Africa, the World Bank projected economic growth of 4.1 percent in 2026, noting that forecasts for several major economies, including Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Senegal, South Africa, and Zambia, were revised downward.

“Overall, about 60 percent of the countries in the region (29 of 47) recorded downward revisions to their 2026 growth forecasts,” the report stated.

Despite the downgrade, the bank noted that improved inflation control, stronger currencies, and easing food and fuel prices have supported private consumption and investment.

However, it warned that rising global tensions, especially conflicts in the Middle East, could push up energy prices, disrupt trade, and trigger fresh inflation pressures.